フリート信頼度の推定手法と信頼性設計

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URI http://shark.lib.kagawa-u.ac.jp/kuir/metadata/5073
Title
フリート信頼度の推定手法と信頼性設計
Title Alternative
Statistical fleet reliability estimators and reliability-based design
File
Description

An effort has been recently made by A. M. Freudenthal to estimate the fleet reliability based on the scatter factor defined as the ratio of the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter of the two-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter, assumedly describing the life distribution of structural elements or components, to the “time to first failure T1"" among a fleet of nominally identical elements or components subjected also to nominally identical operating conditions. Unfortunately, however, his definition of the fleet reliability R' does not rigorously represent the true fleet reliability R to be defined theoretically as R=P[T1≧t1], where t1 is the service life (minimum life) specified for the fleet. Further, R' in itself inherently involves a statistical nature and therefore needs to be deemed as an estimator of R. In this respect, a new estimator of R, designated by R in the case of known shape parameter, has been introduced in the present study. Statistical natures of R' and R have been carefully examined and compared with the aid of Monte Carlo techniques, which has revealed the more advantage in using R in the reliability assessment rather than in using R'. The mathematical difficulty multiplies when the Weibull shape and scale parameters are both assumed to be unknown. However, this is undoubtedly the case which is consistent with engineering reality. For these conditions, therefore, the reliability estimators R and R'' have also been introduced as a natural extension of aforementioned R and R', respectively. Procedures involving Monte Carlo techniques have been established to evaluate the statistical properties of these estimators. Simulated results show that R plays the more crucial role in the reliability-based design than R''. The effect of the size to be used in the fatigue test, of the fleet size and of the reliability level on the accuracy of such estimation has also been discussed. The fleet reliability can then be estimated based on either R in the case o

Author
著者 石川 浩
著者(ヨミ) イシカワ ヒロシ
著者(別表記) Ishikawa Hiroshi
著者 谷本 敏夫
著者(ヨミ) タニモト トシオ
著者(別表記) Tanimoto Toshio
著者 木村 等
著者(ヨミ) キムラ ヒトシ
著者(別表記) Kimura Hitoshi
著者 Shinozuka Masanobu
著者(ヨミ) シノズカ マサノブ
著者(別表記) Shinozuka Masanobu
Publication Title
香川大学経済論叢
Volume
53
Issue
2
Start Page
301
End Page
349
Publisher
香川大学経済研究所
Published Date
198010
ISSN
03893030
NCID
AN00038281
Resource Type
Departmental Bulletin Paper
Language
jpn
Text Version
publisher
Set
香川大学
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